投資の期待値について

未分類

 私は投資においては「期待値」がすべてだと考えています。
 期待値とは、「投資に際して見込まれる利益あるいは損失」のことです。
 これをトレードに当てはめることで例えば「一回のトレードで1000円の利益が見込まれる」と具体的な数字でトレードを考えられるようになります。

 期待値がプラスのトレードを繰り返していれば、大数の法則にしたがい資金が増えていくという確率的・統計的考えが、継続的に勝ち続ける上で最も重要だと考えています。

期待値とはなにか?

 期待値は「勝率」と「損益率」の二つで決まります。

  • 勝率=勝ちトレード数÷負けトレード数
  • 損益率=勝ちトレードpips数÷負けトレードpips数
  • 期待値=勝率×損益率-(1-勝率)=勝率×(1+損益率)-1

具体例で説明します。
例:勝率0.5(50%)、損益率2の時
期待値=0.5×2-(1-0.5)=0.5
この場合期待値は0.5となります。
これが意味するのは「一回のトレードにおいて損切額を1としたとき0.5の利益が見込まれる」ということ。つまり損切金額が1万円のトレードにおいて5000円の利益が見込まれるということです。

 しかしこれをいちいち計算するのは面倒なので様々な勝率と損益率ごとの期待値の一覧を作成しました。

この表の見方は、例えば「勝率が0.5で損益率が1.5の時、期待値は0.25となる」という感じで見ます。
ここから勝率50%で、損益率1.5、損切金額1万円のトレードでは2500円の利益が見込まれるということがわかります。

また、それぞれの損益率と期待値がごとに必要な勝率についても一覧にしました。

この表は例えば損益率が1であれば、期待値が0.2になるのに必要な勝率は60%というように見ます。
 ご活用ください。

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  1. […] 以前にこちらの記事で期待値の一覧表を載せました。投資の期待値についてこちらの記事では、適切なリスク一覧を載せました。適切なリスクは期待値ごとに異なる […]

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