これまでの記事で、
勝率が高いと資産が安定して増えていく
勝率と成績の安定性
適切なリスクは、勝率が高いほど高くなる
＝勝率が高いトレードであれば大きなリスクをとれる
期待値と適切なリスク一覧
ドローダウン率ごとの適切なリスク
といったことを書いてきました。
しかし、なぜ低勝率＆損益率重視のトレードでは、大きなリスクを取ってはいけないのかまだ納得できないという人もいるかと思います。もう一度この点について解説していきます。
ばらつきが大きいと、「ドローダウンを限定する」ためには取るリスクを減らさないといけない
こちらのグラフをご覧ください。
これは
●勝率10% 損益率11 期待値0.2 リスク2％
●勝率90％ 損益率0.33333333 期待値0.2 リスク2％
の条件で、100連続のトレードを1000回試行した結果の最終資産額のばらつき程度をグラフに表したものです。
どちらの場合も試行1000回の最終資産の平均は約150万円で、変わりません。
勝率90％の方は平均値付近に最終資産額のデータが集中しているのに対して、勝率10％の方は40万～850万までの広い範囲に最終資産が分散しています。
勝率10％では、ドローダウンリスクが大きい反面、元手の3倍以上になった試行もあります。
大きくドローダウンするリスクと同時に大きく儲けられる可能性もあるわけです。平均は同じなわけですから。
私たちははたして
高勝率⇒ドローダウンリスクが小さいが、大きく儲けられる可能性も小さい
低勝率⇒ドローダウンリスクは大きいが、大きく儲けられる可能性も大きい
このどちらを選ぶべきか？選びたいか？という選択なのです。
おそらく、専業として長く続けていこうと考える場合、前者のより安定性の高い方を選ぶでしょう。
もし後者を選ぶとしても「ドローダウンリスクが許容レベル以下になる」ようにロット数（取るリスク）を調整するでしょう。
その結果として、「適正なリスク一覧表」において高勝率トレードでは適正なリスクが高く、低勝率トレードでは低く表現されることになったのです。
まとめ
- 低勝率トレードは、トレードを繰り返した結果の資産のばらつきが大きい分ギャンブル的要素が大きくなる
- この理由からドローダウンを限定するための資金管理（リスク管理）をしようとすると、低勝率トレードはロットを張れない＝大きなリスクを取れないことになる
- 結果として、低勝率トレードは1トレード当たりの期待利益額が小さくなるため、資金が増えていきにくい
⇒ 損益率を犠牲にしても勝率を追い求めるべきである
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