ドローダウン率ごとの適切なリスク

前回の記事で、適切なリスクの一覧を載せました。

期待値と適切なリスク一覧

ここで一覧にしたものは過去に述べた「適切なリスク」である
100回のトレードにおいて初期資産の50%の損失が出た時点で破産とし、
破産確率が3%以下となるような最大のリスクを「適切なリスク」と定義する

という定義に基づいたリスクです。
これは別の言い方をすれば、100回のトレードの途中で50%のドローダウンが起こるリスクが3%以下となるような最大のリスクということになります。

ここで疑問に思ったのではないでしょうか?
「50%の損失では大きすぎる。30%程度のドローダウンリスクが3%以下になるような適切なリスクはどのくらいなのだろう?」
と。

ドローダウン率毎の適切なリスク

そこで、ドローダウン割合を変えてそのドローダウンリスクが3%以下となるような最大のリスクを調べてみました。マクロを組んで自動で算出するようにしたので、手動より若干精度が落ちるかもしれませんがご了承ください。

ドローダウン10%

ドローダウン20%

ドローダウン30%

ドローダウン40%

1/3ということでキリのいい33%も載せておきます。
ドローダウン33%

ご活用ください。

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