前回の記事で、適切なリスクの一覧を載せました。
ここで一覧にしたものは過去に述べた「適切なリスク」である
100回のトレードにおいて初期資産の50％の損失が出た時点で破産とし、
破産確率が3％以下となるような最大のリスクを「適切なリスク」と定義する
という定義に基づいたリスクです。
これは別の言い方をすれば、100回のトレードの途中で50％のドローダウンが起こるリスクが3％以下となるような最大のリスクということになります。
ここで疑問に思ったのではないでしょうか？
「50％の損失では大きすぎる。30％程度のドローダウンリスクが3％以下になるような適切なリスクはどのくらいなのだろう？」
と。
ドローダウン率毎の適切なリスク
そこで、ドローダウン割合を変えてそのドローダウンリスクが3％以下となるような最大のリスクを調べてみました。マクロを組んで自動で算出するようにしたので、手動より若干精度が落ちるかもしれませんがご了承ください。
ドローダウン10％
ドローダウン20％
ドローダウン30％
ドローダウン40％
1/3ということでキリのいい33％も載せておきます。
ドローダウン33％
ご活用ください。
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